Weekly Price Analysis #2: Week 19 - 2018

BTC/USD - Bears bite back after bulls fail to break 10k

At the time of writing, 13:30 (GMT), $BTC is trading at around $8540. After a gradual slide over the past few days, it has poked through the support zone at around $8600-8800, and is approaching the next level of possible support at the $8300 level.

Since Bitcoin skirted the $10k mark without successfully passing it, the market has become uneasy, with doubt creeping back in to fuel a more bearish outlook—The 100-hour MA is now heading south, and the 50-hour MA has a similar bearish bias.

This decline was interrupted on Wednesday as Iranians turned to Bitcoin (BTC) in the wake of the US exit from the nuclear deal. On the news that Trump would withdraw, Bitcoin saw a brief pump—a price action that reflects the traditional movement of safe haven assets like gold and oil in times of geopolitical turmoil.

Looking to the future, there may soon be a catalyst that could potentially reverse this downward trend. Consensus, the annual blockchain technology summit, is set to begin on May 14th. This event is huge within the cryptosphere, and could potentially help create the volume which is needed to propel the price of $BTC upwards.

Last year the event coincided with the beginning of the biggest bitcoin bull run yet, and many are speculating that we will see a similar wave of positive sentiment enter the market.

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XAU/USD - Political turmoil drives positive price movement

President Trump’s politics, the ongoing tensions in the Middle East, and the outcome of the Fed's monetary policy meeting have been the key drivers of gold’s price this week, which has seen positive traction and risen to its highest level since the end of April at $1325.

Uncertainty revolving around the implications of subdued inflation figures on the Fed's monetary policy normalization has created weakness in the dollar, which has contributed to the upward momentum for gold—making a strong rebound from it’s bounce off the 200-DMA.

Midweek market volatility rose in reaction to uncertainty over the US position on the Iran nuclear deal, which affected all equity prices including gold. Increasing positive sentiment in safe haven assets was also reinforced by the outcome of research from the GFMS metals research team - a unit of Thomson Reuters, who noted that gold will deliver its strongest annual price performance in five years this year.

Looking to the future, in the absence of significant economic events, the commodity looks set to build further on the 0.8% gains it has made this week.

A key level of support to watch is at the $1325-26 region (100-DMA), which if passed might see it test the $1331-33 supply zone.

Alternatively, downward moves might find support around $1317-16, which if broken could drag the price down to a strong horizontal support at the $1310 region.
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Disclaimer: Please be advised this information is not a recommendation to buy or sell, and is only to be used for educational purposes.