Weekly Price Analysis #13 - Week 30
Howdy bitcoiners and goldbugs, time for another weekly price update on the king of crypto, and our favourite yellow metal!
BTC/USD - Bitcoin Breaks Key Resistance
It’s been a bullish week for bitcoin, and it is now trading at $7,909. Expanding volume and increased price have marked a distinct change in market character from preceding months, and a fresh high of $8,500 was hit on Tuesday, representing a roughly 44% gain from June's low of $5785.43.
Since then, the price has been retracing, and has found momentary support at the 0.5 fibonacci retracement level.
In the news this week, ETF rumours have helped contributing a sense of positive anticipation to market movements. But yesterday, news emerged that the Winklevoss ETF had been denied by the SEC, bringing a sense of uncertainty back to price action, and as some analysts suggest, precipitating the pullback.
Zooming out, however, shows that the upward trend of the last few days remains intact. This bullish picture is supported by a continued expansion in volume, and price action that is holding firmly above the 200 Day Moving Average (shown in blue.)
Looking to the future, if the retrace falls below the $7,900 region at the 0.5 fibonacci retracement level, then further downside could be in store, taking bitcoin down to meet resistance at the levels it so confidently cut through earlier in the week.
First would be the $7,800 level, which if broken could lead to $7,200, where more sturdy support lies.
Given the recent bullish momentum, if support holds at these levels then we could expect further expansion of volume pushing the price to new highs. This rally would be likely to face immediate horizontal resistance at the $8,100 level, and then the psychological level of $9,000.
XAU/USD - Gold Steadies at Historic Low
Now trading at $1,224, gold hit a one-year low of $1,211 on July 19th, and since then has been trading in a narrow range.
On Wednesday, a Joint U.S.-EU Statement was released following President Juncker's visit to the White House. This promised close cooperation between the two powers to avert a trade war, fostered a brief relief rally in equity markets.
This pushed the dollar down and gave goldbugs the chance to drive a slight resurgence. However this was soon to be pushed lower again by a burgeoning dollar on the release of Jobless Claims statistics, and Durable Goods Orders for June yesterday, that managed to beat expectations.
The main trend however, is down, and this looks set to continue. Only a break of the $1244 region could cause a short-term bull trend, pushing shorters out of their position and potentially driving the price to the next resistance area at $1249 to $1256.
Should the downtrend continue, support could be found at yesterday’s low of $1,222, and then at $1,218, the yearly low hit on Tuesday.