Weekly Price Analysis #38 - Week 4 - 2019

Welcome Vaultorians, to another weekly update on the movements of bitcoin and gold.

BTC/USD - How Long Can Bitcoin Keep Still?

Bitcoin is currently changing hands for $3,550, and the price continues to consolidate in a narrow range above $3,500.

In the news, a long-awaited bullish catalyst — the VanEck Bitcoin ETF — has been taken off the cards for Q12019. CBOE has pulled the application on concerns over the government shutdown.

However, the market has not reacted to this news, suggesting that bad news about the ETF was already priced in, and sellers could have become exhausted.

As the downturn continues, traders are growing impatient, and beginning to ask the question: how long can bitcoin stay like this?

The 2014 bear market persisted for 410 days (from the high of November 2013 to the bottom in January 2015) followed by 250 more days of relative stability before bitcoin finally made a convincing move to the upside in November 2015.

At present, the current bear market has raged for 406 days, meaning that if we see more downside in the next few days, we would be experiencing the longest bear market in bitcoin’s short history.

To the immediate future, a symmetrical triangle has formed on the four hour chart, and it now looks to be breaking down. Support against this downward move could be found at $3,500, and then $3,330.

If we manage to move higher, then the first price target would be at the top of the range at $3,700, which is also the yearly open. Beyond that, further resistance is lined up at the $3,800 region, and then at $4,000.

XAU/USD - Gold Pulls Back to Support at $1,280

After hesitating at the $1,300 level, gold has slipped back down to sit above key support at $1,280.

Political events, including uncertainty around Brexit and the potential for a no-deal scenario, fears over futile ongoing China-US trade talks, and concerns over the IMF’s cut in global growth forecasts, have all spurred demand for the safe haven asset.

This has created a general risk-off attitude, and US equities have slumped this week, and the dollar has continued to lose strength. This has helped support the yellow metal, which is now sitting at a critical juncture, where key horizontal support meets with a diagonal upwards trend line.

Gold is trading higher on Friday morning, raising hopes that the yellow metal could resume its recent uptrend, and break through resistance at $1,297, this would make a test of $1,300 very likely, which if broken, would set resistance at $1,310 into play.

If we move lower, then strong support could be found at $,1280, and then at $1,266.

Disclaimer: This article is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.